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Saudi Attack Highlights Oil Risk
Saudi energy minister Prince spoke at a press conference on September 17, reassuring the world that operations would resume quickly at the badly damaged Abqaiq processing facility. He went to lengths to insist that the market would not be short of oil, despite the largest oil supply disruption in history. Oil prices spiked on September 16, surging by 15%, one of the largest price gains on record. But benchmark prices fell back by 6% on next day after it appeared that Abqaiq might recover quicker than anticipated. Despite the reassurances, perceptions of supply risk are not going away. Prince succeeded in convincing the oil market that the crisis was manageable and could be quickly overcome. But many serious questions linger. First, he said that Saudi Arabia would not return to 12 mbpd of capacity until the end of November. Not to be confused with production, capacity refers to the ability to produce. This is important because it implies that some level of Saudi spare capacity could remain offline for months. That may not be a huge problem in an oil market that has seen rising non-OPEC supply and flagging demand. In fact, the world is staring down a supply glut in 2020. More importantly, the days in which the market perceived Saudi supply as impenetrable are decidedly over. It is notable that several days after the attack took place, it is still not definitively clear what exactly struck the Abqaiq facility, or where the strike originated. This raises the question about future attacks. No matter whether it takes Saudi Arabia five days or a lot longer to get oil back into production, there is but one rational takeaway from this weekend’s drone attacks on the Kingdom’s infrastructure that infrastructure is highly vulnerable to attack, and the market has been persistently mispricing oil.