The Americas’ PE surplus is expected to average at close to 617,000 ton in 1Q26. In February, US polyethylene spot prices continued to show upticks in spot prices across all grades on tight supply conditions. INEOS Olefins and Polymers USA issued a force majeure in January that due to equipment breakdown and affecting its polyethylene supplies (470 kta). Baystar's Bayport Polymers planned a two- to three-week turnaround at the end of January and will affect the high-density film-grade production; Dow is planning to begin a turnaround of its 272 kta HDPE plant in the Bahía Blanca complex in Argentina in H2 February. US PE supply, particularly for HDPE and LDPE, is expected to stay relatively tight in the month. Polyethylene exports in the US and Canada fell month on month in January across grades, with HDPE exports saw the largest month-on-month decline in January, by 14.5%. Brazil’s anti-dumping investigation and uncertainty will continue to impact US exports in 2026, and weigh on US PE margins along with competitive Asian pricing in outlook.